美國媒體專家Wayne Root:別理假民調 拜登將敗選

【曹長青按:Wayne Root是全美托拉斯電台節目主持人、暢銷書作家,曾為《拉斯維加斯評論報》(Las Vegas Review-Journal)專欄作家、2008年美國Libertarian Party 副總統候選人,2012年回到共和黨。他堅定支持川普,2016年曾準確(強烈)預測川普一定勝選。他的秘密武器是出租車司機對乘客民調,發現多數挺川普。這次他用卡車司機民調,發現美國中部州的居民草坪插的支持川普標語牌絕對超過拜登的。他10月11日在美國保守派網站Townhall發表的這篇文章在中國廣泛傳播,我看到譯文後(譯者不詳),找到原文(附後)並做了些校正(並增加了原英文首尾被刪去的部分)。下面是他的文章譯文和原英文。圖片是Wayne Root和川普總統。】

在2016年,我扮演了Paul Revere(曹長青註:指美國獨立戰爭時,騎快馬報信的那位愛國者,他高喊:英軍來了,英軍來了。他的提早報信對華盛頓的大陸軍贏得戰役起到重要作用。他被視為英雄。他也是能工巧匠,會雕工鑄造,後因此致富),但不同的是,我喊的是:“川普的勝利來了,川普的勝利來了!”

那時我參加了1500多次電視和廣播節目,告訴人們媒體發布的那些民調數字完全是錯誤的。我一次又一次告訴川普的支持者,不要理會“假新聞”和虛假的民調數字。

成千上萬支持川普的選民給我發了電子郵件,感謝我在看起來必輸的時候給了他們希望。數百名保守派廣播和電視主持人感謝我在川普的支持者們處於最黑暗和最低點時,保持了“川普軍”的精神。

不管是好是壞,這是我一生中最突出的才華:看穿錯誤的數學、謊言、民意調查者和主流媒體的欺詐和宣傳,並保持川普選民的興奮、熱情、專註和參與。

2016年我的判斷正確。今年的11月3日(大選投票日),我會再次正確。

儘管所有錯誤的民調都顯示川普的支持率落後兩位數,但我相信川普總統正在爭取壓倒性的選舉勝利(略高於2016年)。我可以證明這一點。

首先,這次選舉看起來像是複製了2016年的過程。每次民調都顯示川普正走向災難。但是我有一個“秘密武器”,我稱它為“出租車投票調查”。我的一位好友在拉斯韋加斯開出租車,她對每個坐出租車的人說:“我正在做一項民意調查。它是100%保密的。我完全不知道你的名字,所以,告訴我,你投票選誰?”這一調查,支持川普的結果是壓倒性的。那時我就知道將會發生什麼。

今天,我的秘密武器稱為“卡車司機投票調查”。我的粉絲在越野車中馳騁,他們都報告了相同的現象。在美國中部的那些州,有成千上萬的川普標誌出現在居家草坪上。但是拜登的標誌在哪裡?幾乎找不到。

各位,請相信,民調無所謂。人們對民調問卷者所說的不起作用。重要的只是幾個關鍵搖擺州人民的選票,尤其是佛羅里達州,以及中西部的俄亥俄、密歇根、愛荷華、威斯康星、賓夕法尼亞州。我的粉絲告訴我,這些州是100%支持川普的。在小鎮和郊區,您找不到對拜登的任何支持。

今年是2016年的再現。川普振興了美國經濟,增加了製造業工作崗位,並贏得與中國的貿易戰,他是英雄。人們可能不會向民調人員說,但川普是“中西部之王”。

媒體不停地引用任何顯示川普大幅落後的民意調查。但(美國)民主研究所(Democracy Institute)和(英國)《周日快報》在本周的民調顯示,川普以46%對45%領先拜登,並以很大的優勢贏得了幾乎所有搖擺州。這項民調並沒有對民主黨人過度採樣(大多數其它民意調查就是這樣做的),而是只對可能的選民進行了民調。搖擺州的選民意見是至關重要的。

另據“民意觀察”(Poll Watch)的民調顯示,川普在搖擺州和選舉人團(Electoral College)雙雙獲得全國範圍的勝利。而在大多數美國人最關心的“經濟”和“法律與秩序”這兩個問題上,川普則佔主導地位。

最重要的是,新的蓋洛普民調報告顯示,有56%的美國人表示,與四年前的奧巴馬、拜登政府相比,他們在川普的領導下,現在過得更好。儘管有新冠病毒的影響,但絕大多數美國人今天的狀況比四年前要好。你以為他們會投票給拜登嗎?

順便說一句,對於“你今天比四年前更好嗎?”這個問題,“56%”是蓋洛普歷史上得到的最高數字。當年裡根總統在蓋洛普民調中獲得44%的選票,並以壓倒性優勢贏得選舉。而今天川普是56%。

如果美國人還不能肯定川普促進了經濟的發展,那麼在選舉前五天的10月29日,將發布美國第三季度的國內生產總值。亞特蘭大聯儲(Atlanta Fed)估計,經濟增長將達到34.6%,這是自1776年以來美國歷史上的最高值。

此外,自從1912年進行初選以來,謀求連任者從未在初選中獲得75%或以上的選票而輸掉大選。而在2020年共和黨初選中,川普獲得了94%的選票。

另一個因素:由於擔心新冠病毒,拜登團隊幾乎沒有出過門。但是,川普的志願者已經在戰場州敲開了超過2000萬扇門。您認為選舉日會產生什麼結果?

順便說一句,拜登和副手哈里斯(賀錦麗)上周四(10月8日)在亞利桑那州舉行了一場活動,結果只來了8個支持者。

自由派媒體將在11月3日再次感到震驚和敬畏!川普將再次贏得壓倒性勝利!而我,也將再次被證明是對的。

而且,我這位當代的 Paul Revere(文首提到的報信愛國者,同時又靠能工巧匠而成富豪)在投資發財上——也會再次正確。(指預測到川普勝選而正確投資股票致富)

(本文作者 Wayne Allyn Root 是一位美國企業CEO、暢銷書作家、全美托拉斯電台政論節目主持人)

下面是該文的原始英文——

Fake-Poll Alert: Proof Biden Is Not Winning

By Wayne Allyn Root

Posted: Oct 11, 2020,Townhall.com

Back in 2016, I played Paul Revere, except my announcement was “The Trump victory is coming! the Trump victory is coming!” I made over 1,500 TV and radio appearances to deliver the message that the polls were all wrong. I told Donald Trump supporters again and again to ignore the “fake news” and the fake polls.

Tens of thousands of Trump voters emailed me to thank me for giving them hope when all seemed lost. Hundreds of conservative radio and TV hosts thanked me for keeping up the spirits of the “Trump Army” when Trump voters were at their darkest and lowest points.

For better or worse, that’s my best talent in life: seeing through the faulty math, lies, fraud and propaganda of pollsters and the mainstream media in order to keep Trump voters excited, motivated, focused and in the game.

I was right back in 2016. I’ll be right again on Nov. 3.

Despite all the faulty polls showing a double-digit loss, I believe President Trump is on his way to a landslide electoral victory (slightly bigger than that in 2016). And I can prove it.

First, this election looks like a carbon copy of 2016. Every poll back then showed Trump headed for disaster. But I had a secret weapon. I called it The Taxi Poll. My buddy drove a taxi in Las Vegas. Every person who got in her taxi was told, “I’m doing a poll. It’s 100% confidential. I don’t even know your name. So, tell me, who are you voting for?” The results were overwhelmingly for Trump. I knew then what was about to happen.

Today, I have what I call The Truckers Poll. But it’s not just my trucker fans; it’s my fans who drive cross-country in their RVs. All of them report the same phenomenon. In Middle America, there are thousands and thousands of Trump lawn signs. But where are the Biden signs? There are almost none to be found.

Folks, understand this: What polls say doesn’t matter. What people say to pollsters doesn’t matter. What matters is only the votes of people in a few key battleground states, in particular Florida and the Midwestern states of Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. My fans tell me these states are 100 percent Trump country. In small towns and outer suburbs, you can’t find any support for Biden.

It’s 2016 squared. After what Trump has done for the U.S. economy and manufacturing jobs and to win the trade war with China, he is a hero. People may not tell that to pollsters, but Trump is “the king of the Midwest.”

But wait; there’s more.

The media quotes nonstop any poll that shows Trump losing by double digits. But I never heard a word about the Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll from this week that showed Trump beating Biden 46% to 45% and winning almost all battleground states by a healthy margin. That poll didn’t oversample Democrats by a mile (as most other polls do) and polled only likely voters. Likely voters in battleground states are all that matter.

Or the Poll Watch poll released this week that shows Trump winning nationally, in battleground states and in the Electoral College. Trump dominates on the two issues that matter to most Americans: the economy and law and order.

Or have you heard that in the Real Clear Politics battleground average, Trump is slightly ahead of where he was at this time in 2016 (on his way to a victory over Hillary Clinton)?

Most importantly, a new Gallup poll reports 56% of Americans say they are better off now under Trump than they were four years ago under then-President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden. Every expert knows what clinches elections — “It’s the economy, stupid.” A solid majority of Americans feel better off today than four years ago, despite COVID-19. You think they’re voting for Biden? By the way, that 56% is the highest number in the history of Gallup asking, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Ronald Reagan got 44% in the Gallup poll and won the election in a landslide. Trump is at 56%.

They may not tell pollsters they are, but when they walk in the voting booth, they’re all voting for Trump.

If Americans aren’t yet convinced Trump is great for the economy, on Oct. 29, five days before the election, the third-quarter gross domestic product will be released. The Atlanta Fed estimates it will be 34.6% economic growth, the highest in the history of America — since 1776.

Still not convinced? Since primaries were born in 1912, no incumbent has ever lost the general election after receiving 75% or more of the votes from their party in the primaries. Trump received 94% of all cast in the 2020 Republican primaries.

One more factor: Because of fear of COVID-19, Team Biden has hardly knocked on any doors in America. But Trump volunteers have knocked on over 20 million doors in battleground states. Twelve million to zero. You don’t think that changes things on Election Day?

By the way, Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris had an event in Arizona on Thursday. Eight people showed up.

The liberal media is about to be shocked and awed on Nov. 3 — again. Trump is about to win an electoral landslide — again.

And this modern-day Paul Revere is right on the money — again.

Wayne Allyn Root is a CEO, entrepreneur, bestselling author, nationally syndicated talk-show host on USA Radio Network at 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. EST/3 p.m. to 6 p.m. PST.

(Visited 1 times, 1 visits today)

發表迴響