美国媒体专家Wayne Root:别理假民调 拜登将败选

【曹长青按:Wayne Root是全美托拉斯电台节目主持人、畅销书作家,曾为《拉斯维加斯评论报》(Las Vegas Review-Journal)专栏作家、2008年美国Libertarian Party 副总统候选人,2012年回到共和党。他坚定支持川普,2016年曾准确(强烈)预测川普一定胜选。他的秘密武器是出租车司机对乘客民调,发现多数挺川普。这次他用卡车司机民调,发现美国中部州的居民草坪插的支持川普标语牌绝对超过拜登的。他10月11日在美国保守派网站Townhall发表的这篇文章在中国广泛传播,我看到译文后(译者不详),找到原文(附后)并做了些校正(并增加了原英文首尾被删去的部分)。下面是他的文章译文和原英文。图片是Wayne Root和川普总统。】

在2016年,我扮演了Paul Revere(曹长青注:指美国独立战争时,骑快马报信的那位爱国者,他高喊:英军来了,英军来了。他的提早报信对华盛顿的大陆军赢得战役起到重要作用。他被视为英雄。他也是能工巧匠,会雕工铸造,后因此致富),但不同的是,我喊的是:“川普的胜利来了,川普的胜利来了!”

那时我参加了1500多次电视和广播节目,告诉人们媒体发布的那些民调数字完全是错误的。我一次又一次告诉川普的支持者,不要理会“假新闻”和虚假的民调数字。

成千上万支持川普的选民给我发了电子邮件,感谢我在看起来必输的时候给了他们希望。数百名保守派广播和电视主持人感谢我在川普的支持者们处于最黑暗和最低点时,保持了“川普军”的精神。

不管是好是坏,这是我一生中最突出的才华:看穿错误的数学、谎言、民意调查者和主流媒体的欺诈和宣传,并保持川普选民的兴奋、热情、专注和参与。

2016年我的判断正确。今年的11月3日(大选投票日),我会再次正确。

尽管所有错误的民调都显示川普的支持率落后两位数,但我相信川普总统正在争取压倒性的选举胜利(略高于2016年)。我可以证明这一点。

首先,这次选举看起来像是复制了2016年的过程。每次民调都显示川普正走向灾难。但是我有一个“秘密武器”,我称它为“出租车投票调查”。我的一位好友在拉斯韦加斯开出租车,她对每个坐出租车的人说:“我正在做一项民意调查。它是100%保密的。我完全不知道你的名字,所以,告诉我,你投票选谁?”这一调查,支持川普的结果是压倒性的。那时我就知道将会发生什么。

今天,我的秘密武器称为“卡车司机投票调查”。我的粉丝在越野车中驰骋,他们都报告了相同的现象。在美国中部的那些州,有成千上万的川普标志出现在居家草坪上。但是拜登的标志在哪里?几乎找不到。

各位,请相信,民调无所谓。人们对民调问卷者所说的不起作用。重要的只是几个关键摇摆州人民的选票,尤其是佛罗里达州,以及中西部的俄亥俄、密歇根、爱荷华、威斯康星、宾夕法尼亚州。我的粉丝告诉我,这些州是100%支持川普的。在小镇和郊区,您找不到对拜登的任何支持。

今年是2016年的再现。川普振兴了美国经济,增加了制造业工作岗位,并赢得与中国的贸易战,他是英雄。人们可能不会向民调人员说,但川普是“中西部之王”。

媒体不停地引用任何显示川普大幅落后的民意调查。但(美国)民主研究所(Democracy Institute)和(英国)《周日快报》在本周的民调显示,川普以46%对45%领先拜登,并以很大的优势赢得了几乎所有摇摆州。这项民调并没有对民主党人过度采样(大多数其它民意调查就是这样做的),而是只对可能的选民进行了民调。摇摆州的选民意见是至关重要的。

另据“民意观察”(Poll Watch)的民调显示,川普在摇摆州和选举人团(Electoral College)双双获得全国范围的胜利。而在大多数美国人最关心的“经济”和“法律与秩序”这两个问题上,川普则占主导地位。

最重要的是,新的盖洛普民调报告显示,有56%的美国人表示,与四年前的奥巴马、拜登政府相比,他们在川普的领导下,现在过得更好。尽管有新冠病毒的影响,但绝大多数美国人今天的状况比四年前要好。你以为他们会投票给拜登吗?

顺便说一句,对于“你今天比四年前更好吗?”这个问题,“56%”是盖洛普历史上得到的最高数字。当年里根总统在盖洛普民调中获得44%的选票,并以压倒性优势赢得选举。而今天川普是56%。

如果美国人还不能肯定川普促进了经济的发展,那么在选举前五天的10月29日,将发布美国第三季度的国内生产总值。亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)估计,经济增长将达到34.6%,这是自1776年以来美国历史上的最高值。

此外,自从1912年进行初选以来,谋求连任者从未在初选中获得75%或以上的选票而输掉大选。而在2020年共和党初选中,川普获得了94%的选票。

另一个因素:由于担心新冠病毒,拜登团队几乎没有出过门。但是,川普的志愿者已经在战场州敲开了超过2000万扇门。您认为选举日会产生什么结果?

顺便说一句,拜登和副手哈里斯(贺锦丽)上周四(10月8日)在亚利桑那州举行了一场活动,结果只来了8个支持者。

自由派媒体将在11月3日再次感到震惊和敬畏!川普将再次赢得压倒性胜利!而我,也将再次被证明是对的。

而且,我这位当代的 Paul Revere(文首提到的报信爱国者,同时又靠能工巧匠而成富豪)在投资发财上——也会再次正确。(指预测到川普胜选而正确投资股票致富)

(本文作者 Wayne Allyn Root 是一位美国企业CEO、畅销书作家、全美托拉斯电台政论节目主持人)

下面是该文的原始英文——

Fake-Poll Alert: Proof Biden Is Not Winning

By Wayne Allyn Root

Posted: Oct 11, 2020,Townhall.com

Back in 2016, I played Paul Revere, except my announcement was “The Trump victory is coming! the Trump victory is coming!” I made over 1,500 TV and radio appearances to deliver the message that the polls were all wrong. I told Donald Trump supporters again and again to ignore the “fake news” and the fake polls.

Tens of thousands of Trump voters emailed me to thank me for giving them hope when all seemed lost. Hundreds of conservative radio and TV hosts thanked me for keeping up the spirits of the “Trump Army” when Trump voters were at their darkest and lowest points.

For better or worse, that’s my best talent in life: seeing through the faulty math, lies, fraud and propaganda of pollsters and the mainstream media in order to keep Trump voters excited, motivated, focused and in the game.

I was right back in 2016. I’ll be right again on Nov. 3.

Despite all the faulty polls showing a double-digit loss, I believe President Trump is on his way to a landslide electoral victory (slightly bigger than that in 2016). And I can prove it.

First, this election looks like a carbon copy of 2016. Every poll back then showed Trump headed for disaster. But I had a secret weapon. I called it The Taxi Poll. My buddy drove a taxi in Las Vegas. Every person who got in her taxi was told, “I’m doing a poll. It’s 100% confidential. I don’t even know your name. So, tell me, who are you voting for?” The results were overwhelmingly for Trump. I knew then what was about to happen.

Today, I have what I call The Truckers Poll. But it’s not just my trucker fans; it’s my fans who drive cross-country in their RVs. All of them report the same phenomenon. In Middle America, there are thousands and thousands of Trump lawn signs. But where are the Biden signs? There are almost none to be found.

Folks, understand this: What polls say doesn’t matter. What people say to pollsters doesn’t matter. What matters is only the votes of people in a few key battleground states, in particular Florida and the Midwestern states of Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. My fans tell me these states are 100 percent Trump country. In small towns and outer suburbs, you can’t find any support for Biden.

It’s 2016 squared. After what Trump has done for the U.S. economy and manufacturing jobs and to win the trade war with China, he is a hero. People may not tell that to pollsters, but Trump is “the king of the Midwest.”

But wait; there’s more.

The media quotes nonstop any poll that shows Trump losing by double digits. But I never heard a word about the Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll from this week that showed Trump beating Biden 46% to 45% and winning almost all battleground states by a healthy margin. That poll didn’t oversample Democrats by a mile (as most other polls do) and polled only likely voters. Likely voters in battleground states are all that matter.

Or the Poll Watch poll released this week that shows Trump winning nationally, in battleground states and in the Electoral College. Trump dominates on the two issues that matter to most Americans: the economy and law and order.

Or have you heard that in the Real Clear Politics battleground average, Trump is slightly ahead of where he was at this time in 2016 (on his way to a victory over Hillary Clinton)?

Most importantly, a new Gallup poll reports 56% of Americans say they are better off now under Trump than they were four years ago under then-President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden. Every expert knows what clinches elections — “It’s the economy, stupid.” A solid majority of Americans feel better off today than four years ago, despite COVID-19. You think they’re voting for Biden? By the way, that 56% is the highest number in the history of Gallup asking, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Ronald Reagan got 44% in the Gallup poll and won the election in a landslide. Trump is at 56%.

They may not tell pollsters they are, but when they walk in the voting booth, they’re all voting for Trump.

If Americans aren’t yet convinced Trump is great for the economy, on Oct. 29, five days before the election, the third-quarter gross domestic product will be released. The Atlanta Fed estimates it will be 34.6% economic growth, the highest in the history of America — since 1776.

Still not convinced? Since primaries were born in 1912, no incumbent has ever lost the general election after receiving 75% or more of the votes from their party in the primaries. Trump received 94% of all cast in the 2020 Republican primaries.

One more factor: Because of fear of COVID-19, Team Biden has hardly knocked on any doors in America. But Trump volunteers have knocked on over 20 million doors in battleground states. Twelve million to zero. You don’t think that changes things on Election Day?

By the way, Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris had an event in Arizona on Thursday. Eight people showed up.

The liberal media is about to be shocked and awed on Nov. 3 — again. Trump is about to win an electoral landslide — again.

And this modern-day Paul Revere is right on the money — again.

Wayne Allyn Root is a CEO, entrepreneur, bestselling author, nationally syndicated talk-show host on USA Radio Network at 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. EST/3 p.m. to 6 p.m. PST.

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